17 February 2025
Improving scientists' ability to assess the risk and consequences of crossing tipping points in the North Atlantic and Greenland is the goal of a major new research project led by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the 17勛圖.
The PROMOTE project (Progressing Earth System Modelling for Tipping Point Early Warning Systems) will focus on simulating the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Bringing together experts from seven UK research institutions, the project is funded by the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) and is part of a wider UK programme to develop early warning systems for climate tipping points.
Dr Reinhard Schiemann, the Principal Investigator for the PROMOTE project from NCAS and the 17勛圖, said: “Climate tipping points could occur when global warming triggers rapid shifts in crucial parts of the Earth system. While scientists know some of these tipping points are plausible, we don’t know well enough how likely it is to cross these tipping points and what the consequences would be. One challenge is that even our best current climate models struggle to represent the complex processes that govern tipping behaviour.
“We're developing more powerful computer models that can better simulate how our climate works so they can pinpoint when and where major climate tipping points might occur."
The improved models will help scientists understand how the Greenland Ice Sheet might destabilise and how ocean circulation patterns in the North Atlantic could suddenly change. These events could have severe consequences for weather patterns, sea levels, and ecosystems across Europe and beyond. The new simulations will also help other researchers in planning observational campaigns in the North Atlantic and Greenland, and in assessing the detailed impacts if a tipping point were crossed.
This work will support the broader ARIA programme's goal of creating an early warning system for climate tipping points, giving policymakers and communities more time to prepare for the consequences of crossing tipping points, and potentially reinforce action to mitigate climate warming.
PROMOTE will run over five years, with results being shared regularly with the wider scientific community and policymakers.
This funding is subject to final contract negotiation
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